AI Takeoff
AI takeoff refers to the speed at which AI systems might transition from human-level to superintelligent capabilities. A hard or fast takeoff implies a rapid, potentially uncontrollable explosion in intelligence, while a soft or slow takeoff suggests a more gradual progression that allows for human intervention and course correction.
Viewpoints
Short timelines, slow takeoff is the safest quadrant
Sam Altman
“The most dangerous scenario combines short timelines to AGI with a fast takeoff. Short timelines with a slow takeoff is the safest quadrant - it gives humanity time to adapt and course correct even if AGI arrives soon.”
Key Moments
Foom starts when AI can build better AI than humans
Eliezer Yudkowsky
“Recursive self-improvement and hard takeoff become inevitable once AI systems are smart enough to design better AI than humans can. That is the threshold where foom definitively begins - though it may start earlier for other reasons.”
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Related concepts
Other relevant clips
Is OpenAI's o3 AGI? Zvi Mowshowitz on Early AI Takeoff, Mechanize launch, & Rising p(doom)
Zvi Mowshowitz
“…ether or not a process of recursive self-improvement aka AI takeoff has already takeoff has already takeoff has already begun. From there, we move on to discuss a bunch of important topics, including how to understand the strange situation we find ourselves in”
Sam Altman: OpenAI CEO on GPT-4, ChatGPT, and the Future of AI | Lex Fridman Podcast #367
Sam Altman
“…- So, one of the main concerns here is something called AI takeoff, or fast takeoff. That the exponential improvement would be really fast to where, like... - In days. - In days, yeah.”
Connor Leahy on Why Humanity Risks Extinction from AGI
Connor Leahy
“actually happens like no I expect that AI takeoff will be so complex it will be so distributed it will be so confusing that no actual individual person will actually see everything that is happening and understand what they're seeing I expect that for us when”
Joe Carlsmith — Preventing an AI takeover
Joe Carlsmith
“specific scenario of an AI takeoff, they end up in this intensely adversarial relationship. You're right to notice that's not how we are in the human world. We're very comfortable with a lot of different differences in values. A&n”
Satya Nadella — Microsoft’s AGI plan & quantum breakthrough
Satya Nadella
“…intelligences that are out of control. For example, this AI takeoff problem may be a real problem, but before it is a real problem, the real problem will be in the courts. No society is going to allow for some human to say, "AI did that." Yes. Well, there's a”
Anton Korinek on Automating Work and the Economics of an Intelligence Explosion
Anton Korinek
“…on uh and what happens to human wages in the runup to an AI takeoff what is the lump of Labor fallacy and how does it relate to thinking about Automation and the future of human wages yeah the lump of Labor”
Victoria Krakovna–AGI Ruin, Sharp Left Turn, Paradigms of AI Alignment
Victoria Krakovna
“…at. I think this also depends on not expecting a super fast takeoff. Of course, if you have super fast take off then I think this would be more likely to happen. For people who are not familiar, by takeoff you mean going from general AI to self-improving AI, o”
Is OpenAI's o3 AGI? Zvi Mowshowitz on Early AI Takeoff, Mechanize launch, & Rising p(doom)
Zvi Mowshowitz
“…ewhat of an RSI situation, right? We're in a soft very soft takeoff RSI situation already where like clearly open AI and Entropic and Google are like developing their stuff a lot faster than they would have if they didn't have AI to help them do it. That's jus”