Automated researchers could compress a decade of ML into a year

From the conversation

At some point, you're going to have GPU fleets in the tens of millions for inference or more. You’re going to be able to run 100 million human equivalents of these automated AI researchers. If you can do that, you can maybe do a decade's worth of ML research progress in a year. You get some sort of 10x speed up. You can make the jump to AI that is vastly smarter than humans within a year, a couple of years. That broadens from there. You have this initial acceleration of AI research. You apply R&D to a bunch of other fields of technology. At this point, you have a billion super intelligent researchers, engineers, technicians, everything. They’re superbly competent at all things. They're going to figure out robotics. We talked about that being a software problem. Well, you have a billion super smart — smarter than the smartest human researchers — AI researchers in your cluster. At some point during the intelligence explosion, they're going to be able to figure out robotics. Again, that’ll expand. If you play this picture forward, it is fairly unlike any other technology. A couple years of lead could be utterly decisive in say, military competition. If you look at the first Gulf War, Western coalition forces had a 100:1 kill ratio. They had better sensors on their tanks. They had better precision missiles, GPS, and stealth. They had maybe 20-30 years of technological lead. They just completely crushed them.…