The threat of conflict could force verification instead of an AI race

Dan HendrycksMutually Assured AI Malfunction [Dan Hendrycks]at 45:20

From the conversation

They say if you do that you know we'll get very they get very mad you know there might be a skirmish or something like that. Um but then this may be something that pressures them to move more toward a verification regime where they aren't make trying to make some bid for going having some sort of intelligence explosion having AIs sort of do automated AI research uh really quickly um like spinning up you know 100,000 AI instances to do AI research really quickly and that bringing you from AGI to super intelligence in a short period of time um so uh um I think that's a key dynamic the fact the the extent to which it's it's destabilizing. I think that strategy needs to um uh keep that in mind. Um uh so there may be cooperation, but it may be through coercion by saying we're not going to allow for this type of um the this type of trajectory or you you to um make this bid for global dominance. Uh and that that could give way to something more multilateral um and uh uh provide some strategic stability. So overall with the paper we we talk about three parts. In in the nuclear era we had deterrence through mutual assured destruction. They don't use nukes and because we can hit them back. Um they don't do the super in this case this is kind of like preventing Iran's nuclear program in some way.…

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Summary

International pressure and threats of conflict could push countries away from racing toward superintelligence through rapid automated AI research. This coercive dynamic might lead to multilateral verification regimes that prevent bids for global dominance through intelligence explosions, similar to how nuclear non-proliferation efforts prevented states from racing to acquire nuclear weapons first.

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