Intrinsic Value & Valuation

Seessel: Intrinsic value remains valid despite mean reversion failures

Adam Seessel

“While mean reversion may fail when companies face structural disruption, intrinsic value remains a fundamentally valid concept grounded in net present value calculations. Unlike mean reversion (which assumes return to historical averages), intrinsic value is based on the principle that any financial instrument's worth equals the present value of all future cash flows discounted to today. Though value investors may err in their estimates—as demonstrated by the Avon Products failure—the underlying framework of intrinsic value calculation is still sound.”

Gilbert & Rosenthal: Early-stage VC is buying options, not valuing cash flows

Ben Gilbert & David Rosenthal

“Traditional investing involves discounting future cash flows to determine present value, examining business fundamentals like margin expansion and growth rates. In contrast, seed-stage venture capital cannot use these methods because investments are made in founders with ideas on napkins—yet valuations like $20 million are still assigned. This represents buying options on potential outcomes rather than genuine cash flow analysis, despite both activities being called 'investing.'”

Mauboussin: Value investing is buying at low expectations, not low multiples

Michael Mauboussin

“Value investing should be understood as buying something for less than it's worth by analyzing what expectations are priced into a stock, rather than simply relying on multiples or yields. While immutable principles like present value of future cash flows remain constant, the specific implementation requires flexibility to recognize when growth rates or profitability might exceed historical patterns. The challenge for value investors is adapting to changing economic realities while maintaining core valuation principles.”

Grieve: Market multiples dominate over intrinsic valuation in practice

Kyle Grieve

“According to a survey of CFA institute members, approximately 93% of analysts use market multiple approaches (primarily P/E ratios and EV/EBITDA) rather than more rigorous discounted free cash flow methods for valuation. This suggests a significant gap between theoretical best practices in intrinsic valuation and what practitioners actually employ in the field.”

Gilbert & Rosenthal: Enron's compound valuation error

Ben Gilbert & David Rosenthal

“Enron's mark-to-market accounting created a compound valuation error by first recognizing 20 years of future cash flows as present revenue, then having investors apply discounted cash flow models on top of that already-inflated revenue base. This created an 'N squared' situation where future value was effectively counted multiple times, with special purpose entities adding yet another layer of artificial value multiplication.”

Rasmussen: Biotech intrinsic valuation is fundamentally harder than traditional businesses

Dan Rasmussen

“Biotech companies are intrinsically much harder to value on solid ground compared to traditional cash-flowing businesses where discounted cash flow analysis provides a clear objective intrinsic value. While R&D spending can serve as an indicator of intrinsic value in biotech, it's not a perfect measure—unlike DCF valuations for traditional businesses where the market price can be reliably compared against a calculated intrinsic worth.”

Horing: Valuation based on GDR and growth rate metrics

Jeff Horing

“Intrinsic valuation of software companies should be based primarily on two metrics: Gross Dollar Retention (GDR) and growth rate. Companies with low single-digit growth and 80% GDR might only be worth 3-4 times revenue, despite having raised capital at much higher valuations during the 2021 funding bubble. Secondary market trading prices reveal that many venture-backed companies are trading well below their marked valuations, indicating that official marks don't reflect true underlying business value.”

Your Valuation Metrics Might Be Lying to You w/ Kyle Grieve (TIP775)

Kyle Grieve

“…ompetitive advantages. And in real time, they build out the intrinsic value portfolio for you to follow along as they search for value in the market. So far, they've done analysis on great businesses like John Deere, Ulta Beauty, AutoZone, and Airbnb. And I re”

The Intrinsic Value of Uber & Reddit w/ Shawn O'Malley (TIP741)

Shawn O'Malley

“…ned the valuation earlier and since your show is called the intrinsic value podcast, I feel like we'd be doing a disservice to not at least talk about the valuation of one of these companies here. So we're looking at a company in Uber with a enterprise value o”

Berkshire Hathaway, Moody's, & BellRing Brands | Stock Analysis & Valuation (TIP795)

Tobias Carlisle

“…ers they've been trained for decades now how to think about intrinsic value so I'm not we've seen that multiple times whenever the market is selling off burks typically is not allowed to be at a huge discount for that long that also goes into my point here abo”

Berkshire Hathaway, Moody's, & BellRing Brands | Stock Analysis & Valuation (TIP795)

Tobias Carlisle

“…ou can then make an adjustment to what you think the the uh intrinsic value is of those equities. And so if you look at the top top holdings, you know, you have Apple, American Express, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, and Chevron, then you can be like, oh, you kno”

The Intrinsic Value of Uber & Reddit w/ Shawn O'Malley (TIP741)

Shawn O'Malley

“…k that you and your co-host uh Daniel Mona are doing at the Intrinsic Value Podcast. And for those not familiar, Sean and I work here at TIP. And Sean, he recently pioneered the launch of the new show titled The Intrinsic Value Podcast, which you can find on a”

The Quiet Winners: Unveiling Hidden Value w/ Adam Wilk (TIP705)

Adam Wilk

“…out holding it for a long period of time and the concept of intrinsic value can change very significantly for a business during the course of our ownership both up and down and there are many examples of businesses in the portfolio where despite higher valuati”

Your Valuation Metrics Might Be Lying to You w/ Kyle Grieve (TIP775)

Kyle Grieve

“…can better understand the fundamentals driving a company's value. Now let's start with a crucial distinction that NYU professor Oswth de Moderan who's been on the show multiple times makes. So that's the difference between pricing and valuing a business. Pric”

Mastering the Markets & Weathering Market Drawdowns w/ Andrew Brenton (TIP770)

Andrew Brenton

“…of floor and decor and in general what sort of discount to intrinsic value you're looking for in your portfolio additions. >> Sure. I mean, so when we say intrinsic value, you can think of it as what's the present value of all future free cash flows back to s”