Contrarian Investing
Being greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.
Viewpoints
Grieve: Harnessing market hatred for contrarian opportunities
Kyle Grieve
“Market participants often develop strong dislike or hatred for entire industries or sectors, causing sentiment to overshoot fundamentals. Contrarian investors can exploit this by identifying quality businesses trading at reasonable valuations in unloved sectors, as Charlie Munger did when buying BYD at 10x earnings in 2008 when Western investors disliked Chinese stocks.”
Oppenheimer: Diversification as contrarian wisdom in era of US exceptionalism
Peter Oppenheimer
“In an era dominated by US market exceptionalism, focusing on diversification represents a contrarian position. True investment success should prioritize risk-adjusted returns over raw returns, requiring portfolio diversification and a patient, long-term perspective. Time is one of the greatest advantages in investing, as it allows the benefits of diversification to compound.”
Key Moments
Grieve: Market volatility creates contrarian opportunities
Kyle Grieve
“Value investors gain an advantage when markets confuse volatility with risk and panic-sell during downturns. The common mistake is projecting the present indefinitely into the future—in bear markets, investors believe recovery will take forever and sell low, then buy back high; in bull markets, they overextrapolate success and get caught when normality returns. The 1987 crash exemplifies this, where panic sellers missed a 50% two-year rally.”
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Other relevant clips
Winning the Long Game: Global & Contrarian Value Investing w/ Soo Chuen Tan (TIP647)
Soo Chuen Tan
“…y and our own investing experience affirms that fundamental contrarian value investing is both empirically and logically sound over a multi-year investment period over multiple possible states of the world a priori meaning for the fact we believe that few othe”
How to Outperform with Unconventional Thinking w/ Larry Connor (TIP671)
Larry Connor
“contrarian value investing is both empirically and logically sound over a multi-year investment period over multiple possible states of the world we believe that few other strategies can rival its antifragility and cumulative probility of compounded long-term”
Money Masters of Our Time: Timeless Investing Tactics From Legends w/ Kyle Grieve (TIP771)
Kyle Grieve
“…iscipline and conviction goes hand in hand with Mr. Price's contrarian nature. One exciting aspect of being contrarian that Train mentions is that being a strong-willed loner usually means that you have weak followers. Now, Price eventually sold his organizati”
Money Masters of Our Time: Timeless Investing Tactics From Legends w/ Kyle Grieve (TIP771)
Kyle Grieve
“…ies that the author John Train shared regarding Templeton's contrarian nature. Let's imagine that you're a book collector and a bargain hunter. You get out of the rain and enter a hole-in-the-wall bookstore with more cobwebs and spiders inhabiting the store th”
Winning the Long Game: Global & Contrarian Value Investing w/ Soo Chuen Tan (TIP647)
Soo Chuen Tan
“…said that we would invest pursuing a fundamental long-term contrarian Global value investing”
Common Stocks and Common Sense: The Strategies of a Successful Value Investor (TIP710)
Kyle Grieve
“contrarian is a very, very tough task. It's much easier just to be a contrarian if that's your natural tendency. If you tend not to care about what others think, then you're on the right path. Ed questioned popular opinions at a young age, so I think it was pa”
The Art of Thoughtful Wealth Creation w/ William Green (TIP687)
William Green
“…this to a an area that maybe is harder to clone and that's contrarianism so I really like your book cuz you in your in your kind of uh chapter on contrarians you talked about Sir John Templeton who I think you know he's probably one of the best examples of a”
Market Cycles, Value Investing, & Nvidia w/ Rob Arnott (TIP688)
Rob Arnott
“…adding to the winners and cutting your losers and being the contrarian that you are you're uh interested in even looking at the opposite uh looking at the losing stocks that get removed and are ignored by the market and turning away from the winning stocks tha”