Chip fabs are the ultimate bottleneck for frontier AI

From the conversation

That, from start to finish, is a five-year period. So the limiting factor is chips. The limiting factor once you can get to space is chips, but the limiting factor before you can get to space is power. Why don't you do the Jensen thing and just prepay TSMC to build more fabs for you? I've already told them that. But they won't take your money? What's going on? They're building fabs as fast as they can. So is Samsung. They're pedal to the metal. They're going balls to the wall, as fast as they can. It’s still not fast enough. Like I said, I think towards the end of this year, chip production will probably outpace the ability to turn chips on. But once you can get to space and unlock the power constraint, you can now do hundreds of gigawatts per year of power in space. Again, bearing in mind that average power usage in the US is 500 gigawatts. So if you're launching, say 200 gigawatts, a year to space, you're sort of lapping the US every two and a half years. All US electricity production, this is a very huge amount. Between now and then, the constraint for server-side compute, concentrated compute, will be electricity. My guess is that people start getting to the point where they can't turn the chips on for large clusters towards the end of this year.…