Reasoning alone hits limits; AI's power is scaled experimentation
Ege Erdil, Tamay BesirogluAGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besirogluat 1:26:00
From the conversation
You need to see it. And obviously that is not an obstacle to AI being incredibly transformative because as I said, you can scale your data collection, you can scale experiments you do both in the AI industry itself and just more broadly in the economy, so you just discover more things. More economic activity means we have more exposed surface area to have more discoveries. All of these are things that have happened in our past, so there's no reason that they couldn't speed up. The fundamental thing is that there's no reason fundamentally why economic growth can't be much faster than it is today. Like it's probably as advanced right now just because humans are such an important bottleneck. They both supply the labor. They play crucial roles in the process of discovery of various kinds of productivity growth. There's just strong complementarity to some extent with capital that you can't substitute machines and so on for humans very well. So the growth of the economy and growth productivity just ends up being bottlenecked by the growth of human population. So let me ask you a tangential question. What’s been happening in China over the last 50 years, would you describe that as, in principle, the same kind of explosive growth that you expect from AI? Because there's a lot of labor that makes the marginal product of capital really high, which allows you to have 10% plus economic growth rates.
Summary
Pure reasoning has limits because the real world contains too much complexity and detail to theorize about without direct observation. AI can still be highly transformative, however, because it enables scaled data collection and experimentation both within the AI industry and across the broader economy. Greater economic activity expands the surface area for discovery, generating more knowledge than reasoning alone could produce.
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